China is scheduled to hold a historic meeting on Oct. 16. Here’s what to expect

Chinese President Xi Jinping is widely expected to consolidate power at a conference held twice a decade this fall. Pictured here on July 1, 2022, at the swearing-in ceremony for Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee.

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BEIJING – China’s leaders are set to gather in Beijing on October 16 for a major political meeting expected to cement the president. Xi JinpingThe strength and signal of upcoming economic policy.

This year’s meeting takes on added significance as it has become a widely watched sign of when China may begin to relax its strict non-proliferation policy.

The It is expected to propose senior leaders of the Chinese Communist Party State media announced Tuesday that the party will hold its 20th national congress on October 16 in Beijing.

It is “the most important political event in China over the past decade,” Citi analysts wrote in a note last week.

The Citi report said Congress is set to launch a new economic-political cycle. “In the near term, this may help reduce policy uncertainty and allow Beijing to refocus on economic development.”

The National Convention is held every five years and is essentially a political event to determine the next group of leaders of the ruling party.

Xi is likely to increase his share of political aides at the two top levels of China’s leadership, according to the Eurasia Group, which predicted that the share of the majority of his political aides holding seats in the Politburo would increase to 80% from 60%, rising to 57% from 43% in Politburo Standing Committee.

“The greater majority of Xi’s colleagues on these bodies will support the Eurasia Group’s view that increasing economic hardship and growing tensions across the Strait have not eroded his power, which flows primarily from leadership of the core institutions of authoritarian rule such as the military, security services, law enforcement, propaganda, and personnel selection.” , according to the report issued on August 18.

They noted that “reducing the representation of Xi’s colleagues would suggest an increase in internal resistance to his rule.”

Xi has risen through the political ranks in China He became formally president in 2013. He abolished presidential term limits in 2018, and the latest political reshuffle is widely expected to give him an unprecedented third term.

Premier Li Keqiang, the second-in-command, said he would do so He ended his term as prime minister in 2022. Other potential changes include leaders in foreign policy.

“The conference will thoroughly discuss the current international and domestic situation,” an official statement in English said.

The statement said that the meeting “will formulate basic action plans and policies.”

However, it is likely that the details of decisions taken at the party conference will not be formalized until the annual “two-session” parliamentary meeting, which is usually held in early March.

End in sight for zero covid?

The conference, expected in mid-October, sets a tentative date for when China may relax its so-called dynamic non-proliferation policy.

“We expect to review the zero Covid policy after the meeting in October, which will help the economy to normalize,” Chuyue Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said in a note.

While much of the world has eased most Covid restrictions, Beijing’s attempt to maintain a policy of little or no Covid infection has restricted business domestically and kept national borders largely closed for more than two years.

Citi analysts said the ruling party could “push China to reconnect.”[ion] With the world it’s hard once he decides to get out of it [dynamic zero-Covid] to recover lost political capital.

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